Subject: The absurd al Qaeda anthrax theory

In the previous thread HERE, "DXer" (a.k.a. "Anonymous") argued that El-Shukrijumah called his mother from Afghanistan on September 13, 2001, to tell her that he was coming to the U.S. "DXer" views that as evidence that El-Shukrijumah mailed the anthrax letters.  We're supposed to believe that El-Shukrijuma had absolutely no problem flying to the U.S. in the week after 9/11 to mail the letters.  And, apparently, that was all he did, because there was no evidence that El-Shukrijuma did anything at all while he was supposedly in the US in September and October 2001.   

Why couldn't someone else mail the letters?  DXer has no answer.  Why was it necessary for El-Shukrijumah to fly half way around the globe to do it?  DXer has no answer.  He just argues that El-Shukrijumah is known to have left the U.S. months before 9/11.  But, he can't provide any evidence at all that El-Shukrijumah returned in time to mail the first anthrax letters on September 18, 2001. 

Next, DXer argued that al Qaeda's lab in Kandahar had Ames anthrax.  But, the facts say that the lab in Kandahar had no anthrax of any kind.  DXer appears to be relying on some "false positive" readings where pieces of Ames DNA were believed to have been found in the Kandahar lab.  Extensive tests done later found NO TRACE of any kind of anthrax. No doubt they planned to work with anthrax (they even got their inoculations), but there's no evidence they actually did anything with anthrax. 

DXer also seems to believe that al Qaeda got their anthrax from Porton Down.  But Porton Down Ames has been serially cultured so many times that it no longer has the same DNA as Ancestor Ames, which means the DNA is also different from the attack anthrax.

Now DXer is arguing about the fact that "Franklin Park, NJ" was part of the return address on the Senate anthrax letters, and how that must be because some of the 9/11 terrorists worshiped in a mosque in Fort Lauderdale, FL, that was across the street from a small park called "Franklin Park."  He evidently cannot see that as a coincidence.  However, of course, it must just be a coincidence that the anthrax letters were mailed 10 miles from a town in New Jersey called "Franklin Park."

Here are some simple facts:

Ivins had access to the source of the anthrax in the letters.
DXer has no evidence that al Qaeda had access to that source.

Ivins made Ames anthrax spores in his lab routinely.
DXer has no evidence that al Qaeda ever made any Ames anthrax spores.

The handwriting on the letters doesn't match Ivins' or Mohamed Atta's writing.
Ivins had reason to disguise his handwriting.  Atta did not.

Ivins was within driving distance of the mailbox at the time of the mailings.
DXer doesn't know where El-Shukrijumah was at the time of the mailings.

A timeline of Ivins' activities can be found by clicking HERE.
"DXer" (a..k.a. "Anonymous") cannot even construct a logical timeline to support his beliefs.  Sometimes he argues that al Qaeda must have used some Muslim agent to steal Ames anthrax from USAMRIID, other times he argues that al Qaeda obtained Ames from Porton Down.  Sometimes he seems to argue that the letters were filled with anthrax in the USA.  Other times he seems to argue that they were filled with anthrax in Afghanistan and then brought to the USA by El-Shukrijuma.  When and why were the envelopes bought in Maryland?  Why were there two different types of anthrax powder?  Why weren't both batches of letters mailed at the same time?  Why return to the same mail box to mail the second batch of letters.  Why mail the letters in Princeton?         

I could go on and on and on.  The al Qaeda theory is absurd.  I would have used the word "preposterous," but it wouldn't fit in the cartoon illustration at the top of this thread.

DXer needs to provide some EVIDENCE in support of his theory.  It is preposterous to argue that the FBI has "no evidence" against Ivins without DXer providing anything that even resembles evidence to support his argument that al Qaeda was behind the anthrax mailings of 2001.

Ed

9/11 Truthers versus Anthrax Truthers

Here is how Anthrax Truther Lew Weinstein describes the Amerithrax evidence:
 

The FBI’s case against Dr. Ivins is clearly bogus: no evidence, no witnesses, an impossible timeline.

Here's how 9/11 Truther Elias Davidsson describes the 9/11 evidence:
 

There's no evidence whatsoever that the 19 people accused of mass murder boarded the planes on 9/11.

That quote from Davidsson can be found on a YouTube video by clicking HERE and going to the 33 minute mark.

A similar quote can be found on another Davidsson video at the 21 minute mark by clicking HERE:

There is not a single item of evidence pointing that these attacks were perpetrated by people coming from abroad.  ... There is no single proof that any foreigners committed these acts.  No proof that any Arabs went into these planes.  And, so if these Arabs did not go into these planes, then the official story must be a lie.  ... The truth is that there were no Muslims involved in this crime.

Interestingly, Davidsson explains what he finds impossible to believe about the official version of what happened on 9/11.  At about the 37 minute mark in that same video, Elias Davidsson says,

We cannot state that the passengers died in these crashes.  We have full reason to suspect that the passengers were murdered somewhere else. Murdered in cold blood by the U.S. Government.  ... It's impossible to believe for most people.  But, the fact that we don't have evidence that people died in the crashes - we don't have evidence - and it forces us to consider that they were killed somewhere else.  These people do not exist anymore.  They have died.  There is no question about that.  Their families mourn them, and there are many people participating in the mourning.  ... These people are certainly dead, and somebody murdered them.  And, I don't believe personally that they were in these planes, because if they were in these planes, then somebody would have piloted these planes.  And nobody in his right mind would pilot these planes to crash these planes -- even a Muslim --- even a Muslim.  I'm sorry.  Nobody in their right mind would do that.  Even absent all that I told you about the lack of evidence, just the thought that somebody would have piloted - with a pilot's license - would be capable of piloting a civilian aircraft - which the alleged hijackers did not have - ....

Even beyond the fact that there is no evidence, the official story is so fantastic - it is so science fiction - to believe that anybody in his right mind had ... the capability and the wish to fly a plane like this is so outrageous that to believe anybody would have crashed the planes with these passengers - and kill themselves at the same time - is itself implausible to the extreme.

Click HERE for a 5-part video talk by Graeme MacQueen, the author of a new book titled "The 2001 Anthrax Deception."  

Click HERE for a talk by conspiracy theorist Barbara Honegger.  It has some truly screwball comparisons between Pearl Harbor and 9/11.  (Her slide show is HERE.)  She believes that neither Pearl Harbor nor 9/11 were surprise attacks.

Click HERE for a truly weird talk about the anthrax attacks by conspiracy theorist Barry Kissin. 

Click HERE for an interview with conspiracy theorist Elizabeth Woodworth where she rationalizes that disputing the official version of 9/11 doesn't require any attempt to prove any alternative version.  She also believes Osama bin Laden had nothing to do with 9/11.

It appears that the beliefs of all the 9/11 and the anthrax conspiracy theorists can be summarized as follows:

They find it impossible to believe the government's version of what happened.
They believe the government officials must be either incompetent or lying.
The government will not give them the evidence needed to prove a conspiracy.
They do not have the power needed to force the release of the "truth."
Therefore, they want a new investigation to find a "truth" they can believe.
And they are trying to convince the public to demand a new investigation.

Therefore, a conspiracy theorist might be defined as follows:

Someone who cannot believe the official version of events, who wants the government to provide him with facts to disprove the official claims, who considers any failure to provide complete and comprehensive facts to be proof of a conspiracy, who wants a new official investigation to prove what he believes to be true, and who is out trying to get other people to help him force the government to start a new investigation.    

People who have knowledge of actual conspiracies aren't "conspiracy theorists" because they will provide the evidence they have of the criminal conspiracy.  They don't ask the government to provide the evidence, nor will they consider it proof of a criminal conspiracy if the government doesn't do as they ask.
 
Ed

Subject: Discussions versus Arguments

In the prior two threads it was made perfectly clear that Mr. Rowley does not agree with the definitions of "Discussion" versus "Argument."  Below are definitions from a source HERE:

A discussion is an orderly confrontation based on a mutual willingness to learn from one another. It involves the presentation of evidence by each party and then a good-faith attempt of the participants in the discussion to come to agreement.

Discussion presupposes some degree of rational disagreement between us or at least a lack of consensus. If I agreed with you already, we would have nothing to discuss. In a discussion, I do not primarily want to disagree: I want to know the truth. If I do not think that what you say is true, then I disagree, stating my reasons as clearly as possible and without animosity. The same is true for you: you present me with your reasons. By sharing our ideas freely, we hope to arrive at a deeper truth. In a discussion, disagreement is for the sake of agreement.

An argument (emotional, not rational) is a disorderly confrontation based on an unwillingness to learn from one another. Desire for victory takes precedence over love of truth, with the result that agreement becomes impossible.

Although they may have rational grounds for disagreement in the first place, all arguments include an element of bad faith — we are not, with all honesty, pursuing the truth together. Rather, in an argument I simply want my position to be the right one and you to agree with me. I am, indeed, looking for agreement, but on my terms, not in terms of objective truth. Instead of my following reason and leaving passion aside, passion is primary, and reason (if it has a role) works in the service of passion. Quite often, in order to end an argument, we agree to disagree.

And, below is another definition from a source HERE:

When you argue over something, it does not naturally follow that you will arrive at a satisfactory conclusion. When you discuss a particular topic, you will arrive at a conclusion. This is the major difference between discussing and arguing.

Mr. Rowley appears to believe that these definitions should be reversed, since he argues that I'm the one doing the arguing.  From my point of view, I'm trying to discuss subjects of mutual interest to see where disagreements might be resolved.  But, Mr. Rowley seems to have NO interest whatsoever in resolving anything.  He only wants to state his beliefs/opinions.  And, if I don't agree, then I'm starting an argument with him.

I can provide probably a hundred instances where he just changes the subject or disappears if I try to discuss something.  But, for the sake of discussion, I'll provide just one.  Long ago on another blog, Mr. Rowley wrote this when arguing that he doesn't believe a child wrote the anthrax letters:

Said another (high falutin’) way: the pragmatics of the social situation make using a child a high-risk stratagem. And an unnecessary one: short term one can fake certain elements of one’s printing/handwriting.

And I responded:

We have a different point of view about how to look at evidence. From my point of view, the FACTS say that a child wrote the letters. From your point of view, that’s not the way an intelligent adult would PLAN things.

I’m talking about what the facts say in an actual crime.
You’re talking about the planning of a theoretical crime.

When the facts say that a child wrote the letters, the questions become: How did Ivins manage to keep the kid quiet? Why did Ivins do things that way?

You don’t say: I don’t believe it because that’s not the way I would do things, nor is it the way I would expect anyone else to do things. That is ignoring what the facts say and going with your beliefs, instead.

Analyzing this exchange, it's easy to see that Mr. Rowley was arguing "apples," while I was trying to discuss "oranges."

He was arguing that the anthrax killer would do things the way he believes they were done.  

In hopes of discussing things, I pointed out that we were not talking about the same things.  He was talking about what would happen in some theoretical crime - or what he believes happened in the anthrax case, and I was talking about what the evidence says in the actual anthrax case.

But, Mr. Rowley generally refuses to discuss the evidence.  He argues that there is no evidence that says Bruce Ivins was the anthrax killer.  On rare occasions when I've managed to get him to discuss specific items of evidence, he will only argue that his interpretation of the law is correct and mine is wrong, regardless of how much evidence I show him that he is wrong.  His argument is that if the case isn't exactly the same as the Amerithrax case, then the law is different and one case cannot be used to discuss another.

There's no way to discuss something with a person if that person is not willing to accept the possibility that he is wrong.  As the definitions show, a discussion requires that the participants be willing to learn from one another.

I'm totally willing to discuss the evidence that a child wrote the anthrax documents.  For over a decade I've been looking for any compelling and overriding evidence that says a child did NOT write the anthrax documents. But, Anthrax Truthers will only argue that they do not believe it, therefore it cannot be true.  That leaves no room for discussion.

I'm totally willing to discuss the evidence that Dr. Bruce Ivins was the anthrax killer.  But Anthrax Truthers simply argue that there is no such evidence.  That leaves no room for discussion.

I'm totally willing to discuss the evidence that some unnamed criminal mastermind was behind the anthrax murders and many other crimes.  But Mr. Rowley generally refuses to provide such evidence, and where he has provided it (click HERE), he refuses to stay on topic.  That ends any attempt at discussion.

Ed

Subject: What is "Evidence"?

Conspiracy theorists do not seem to understand what evidence is or how it works in court.  Instead, they seem to want to use beliefs, theories and ideas of their own as "evidence," arguing that they have a better case against their "suspect" than the FBI/DOJ had against Bruce Ivins using actual evidence.

From "The Plain-Language Law Dictionary," here are legal definitions of "evidence" and "fact": 

evidence.  Everything that is brought into court in a trial in an attempt to prove or disprove alleged facts. Evidence includes the introduction of exhibits, records, documents, objects, etcetera, plus testimony of witnesses, for the purpose of proving one's case.  The jury or judge considers the evidence and decides in favor of one party or the other.  

 fact.  Something that took place; an act; something actual and real; an incident that occurred; an event.

DISCUSSION:
In the Bruce Ivins case, the evidence showing him to be guilty of the anthrax attacks of 2001 consisted of a long list of facts, records and testimony related to the crime, which when viewed in their entirety would almost certainly have convicted him of that crime in court.

Example of one fact that is PART of the evidence against Ivins:

Dr. Ivins had no verifiable alibi for the times of the mailings.

Naysayers might argue that Ivins cannot be expected to remember what he was doing seven years before he was arrested.  That doesn't change the FACT that Ivins had no verifiable alibi.

Naysayers might argue that a lot of other people may also have had no alibi for the times of the mailings.  That also doesn't change the FACT that Ivins had no verifiable alibi.                   

The FACT that Dr. Bruce Edwards Ivins had no verifiable alibi is valid "evidence" and would be used in court to help show that he was guilty of the anthrax attacks of 2001.

Some other facts which could be used as evidence in court to help prove the prosecution's case against Bruce Ivins:

The FACT that Ivins was in charge of flask RMR-1029 (the "murder weapon") would be used in court to help show that Ivins was guilty.

The FACT that Ivins worked alone and unsupervised in his lab at  the time the attack spores were presumably made would be used in court to help show that Ivins was guilty.

The FACT that Ivins could not explain why he was working extraordinary hours alone in his lab at  the time the attack spores were presumably made would be used in court to help show that Ivins was guilty.

The FACT that Ivins was a diagnosed sociopath would be used in court to help show that Ivins was guilty.

Etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.

If the jury had been able to hear all these facts presented as evidence against Dr. Ivins, it seems very reasonable to conclude that he would have been found guity beyond a reasonable doubt.

"FACTS" AND "EVIDENCE" FROM CONSPIRACY THEORISTS:

Conspiracy theorists argue in favor of their own theories, using what they consider to be "facts" and "evidence."  Often their "facts" are not facts, they are only opinions.  Often their "evidence" would not be allowed in court, since doesn't help prove anything.

1. Example from "DXer" (summarized from HERE):

 It is a fact that the so-called "J-Lo" letter sent to the Sun magazine was reportedly  "a business-size sheet of stationery decorated with pink and blue clouds around the edges."

It is presumably a "fact" that "The Clouds" was code name used by al Qaeda for a Media Operations Director. 

However, it is NOT a "fact" that the J-Lo letter contained anthrax, nor is it a "fact" that the J-Lo letter had anything whatsoever to do with the anthrax attacks.  It is just an opinion that the J-Lo letter "most likely" contained anthrax.  So, we have an opinion begin put together with an irrelevant fact to create a meaningless combination of facts.  It is not "evidence," since it does not help to prove anything.

2. Example from "DXer" (summarized from HERE): 

The ink used on the pre-stamped anthrax envelopes is green and the design is an American Eagle.  In Muslim mythology, green birds take the souls of martyrs to paradise.

It is a fact that the stamp was printed in blue-green color, and that it is of a "bird."  It may be a fact that green birds figure in Muslim mythology.  But these two "facts" do NOT connect Muslims to the anthrax letters.  Since the same stamps were used on millions of other letters, neither fact directly relates to the anthrax mailings.  Both appear to be irrelevant facts which are being put together to create a meaningless combination of facts.   

3. Example from R. Rowley (summarized from HERE):

In Mr. Rowley's opinion,  the letter G in the word "GREAT" in the media anthrax letters resembles the letter "Tet" in the cursive version of the Hebrew character set.

It is not a fact, it is just Mr. Rowley's opinion.  And it would therefore not be allowed in court unless (1) the matter could be shown to help prove something in a legal case, and (2) Mr. Rowley could be certified to be an "expert witness" capable of presenting this to a jury as a factual finding.  

In summary, the "facts" and "evidence" from conspiracy theorists are mostly just opinions.  Some are irrelevant facts that are arbitrarily put together to create an argument, but do not directly relate to the issue of who sent the anthrax letters.

The case against Bruce Ivins is a legal case that could be tried in court.  The cases argued by conspiracy theorists are opinions and beliefs that would never be allowed in court.

Ed

Subject: Conspiracy Theorist Psychology

A 2013 article from Slate magazine titled  "Conspiracy Theorists Aren’t Really Skeptics: The fascinating psychology of people who know the real truth about JFK, UFOs, and 9/11" contains these key sections:

Conspiracy chatter was once dismissed as mental illness. But the prevalence of such belief, documented in surveys, has forced scholars to take it more seriously. Conspiracy theory psychology is becoming an empirical field with a broader mission: to understand why so many people embrace this way of interpreting history. As you’d expect, distrust turns out to be an important factor.

and

The strongest predictor of general belief in conspiracies, the authors found, was “lack of trust.”

and

More broadly, it’s a tendency to focus on intention and agency, rather than randomness or causal complexity. In extreme form, it can become paranoia. In mild form, it’s a common weakness known as the fundamental attribution error—ascribing others’ behavior to personality traits and objectives, forgetting the importance of situational factors and chance. Suspicion, imagination, and fantasy are closely related.

The more you see the world this way—full of malice and planning instead of circumstance and coincidence—the more likely you are to accept conspiracy theories of all kinds. Once you buy into the first theory, with its premises of coordination, efficacy, and secrecy, the next seems that much more plausible.

and

Psychologists and political scientists have repeatedly demonstrated that “when processing pro and con information on an issue, people actively denigrate the information with which they disagree while accepting compatible information almost at face value.” Scholars call this pervasive tendency “motivated skepticism.”

Conspiracy believers are the ultimate motivated skeptics. Their curse is that they apply this selective scrutiny not to the left or right, but to the mainstream. They tell themselves that they’re the ones who see the lies, and the rest of us are sheep.

This would seem to apply to True Believers, also.  True Believers tend to think they are the only ones who can see the TRUTH, and the rest of us are just ignorant sheep.

The September 2013 issue of PSY-PAG (Psycology Post-Graduate Affairs Group) Quarterly is a special issue devoted to "The psychology of conspiracy theories."  The 56 page magazine contains these articles about conspiracy theories and conspiracy theorists.

"An introduction into the world of conspiracy" - Christopher Thresher-Andrews

"Towards a definition of ‘conspiracy theory’" - Robert Brotherton

"A review of different approaches to study belief in conspiracy theories" - Anthony Lantian

"The psychology of conspiracy theories blog - http://www.conspiracypsychology.com"

"Has the internet been good for conspiracy theorising?" - Michael Wood

"The detrimental nature of conspiracy theories" - Daniel Jolley

The second PSY-PAG article on the above list, "Towards a definition of 'conspiracy theory'" poses an interesting question:

The claim that members of the US government were complicit in the attacks of September 11, 2001, for instance, is generally branded a conspiracy theory (e.g. Dunbar & Reagan, 2006; Grossman, 2006), yet the label is rarely applied to the claim that members of al-Qaeda secretly planned and executed the attacks. The two claims both postulate a successful conspiracy to commit the attacks.  Why is it that, in popular discourse, the term conspiracy theory is applied to the former but not the latter?

One amusing answer is:

The situation has been likened to attempting to define pornography – a task which forced US Supreme Court Justice Potter Stuart to conclude simply, ‘I know it when I see it’ (Byford, 2011).

But, the more comprehensive and useful definition is in this statement:

I define conspiracy theory as an unverified claim of conspiracy which is not the most plausible account of an event or situation, and with sensationalistic subject matter or implications. In addition, the claim will typically postulate unusually sinister and competent conspirators. Finally, the claim is based on weak kinds of evidence, and is epistemically self-insulating against disconfirmation.

In other words, a "conspiracy theory" is typically implausible, sensationalistic, gives the conspirators super-abilities, is based upon weak evidence, and is so vague that it cannot be easily disproved.

The article also contains this:

Conspiracy theories are unverified claims.
Conspiracies have occurred throughout history, and occur in some form every day – in politics, organised crime, insider dealing, scams, and so on. Philosopher Charles Pigden points out that ‘if a conspiracy theory is simply a theory which posits a conspiracy, then every politically and historically literate person is a big-time conspiracy theorist’ (Pigden, 2007, p.222). However, this is not how the label is commonly used. The term usually refers to explanations which are not regarded as verified by legitimate epistemic authorities. The theory may be regarded as indisputably true by those who subscribe to it, but this belief is invariably at odds with the mainstream consensus among scientists, historians, or other legitimate judges of the claim’s veracity.

I couldn't have said it better myself.  It certainly fits ALL the conspiracy theories related to the anthrax attacks of 2001 that I've heard during the past 12+ years.

Another article from 2013, this time from Scientific American Magazine, is titled "Insights into the Personalities of Conspiracy Theorists," and it begins with this:

Conspiracy theories and scientific theories attempt to explain the world around us. Both apply a filter of logic to the complexity of the universe, thereby transforming randomness into reason. Yet these two theoretical breeds differ in important ways. Scientific theories, by definition, must be falsifiable. That is, they must make reliable predictions about the world; and if those predictions turn out to be incorrect, the theory can be declared false. Conspiracy theories, on the other hand, are tough to disprove. Their proponents can make the theories increasingly elaborate to accommodate new observations; and, ultimately, any information contradicting a conspiracy theory can be answered with, “Well sure, that’s what they want you to think.”

I think those three articles are enough to confirm that I'm not the only one who views "conspiracy theorists" as outside of the norm.  Conspiracy theorists tend to think of themselves as part of the majority, but, as I've written many times, they are just a fringe group that the vast majority of the public doesn't take seriously.  I don't see anything in these articles that disagrees with what I've been saying about conspiracy theorists for 12+ years.  

On the other hand, anarchist Alex Jones indicates he has a study which shows that conspiracy theorists are sane, and government dupes are crazy.   I found it by doing a Google search for conspiracy+theorist+majority.

Ed

Subject: Summing up Anthrax Truther Arguments

The past 12 years of arguing with Anthrax Truthers have been summarized in the past 24 hours in a debate with DXer/Anonymous.

DXer wrote HERE:

Adnan El-Shukrijumah is the anthrax mailer

I researched his claim and found he had no real evidence to support it.  It even appeared that his suspect was in Afghanistan at the time of the anthrax letter mailings.

DXer responded HERE with this argument:

Is there any evidence in the thousands of detainee interrogations — after announcing his intention to his mom upon 9/11 that he was coming to the US — that he did not come? … that he was he was still in Afghanistan at the time of the anthrax mailings? No

So, DXer wants the FBI (or me) to prove that his suspect was NOT in the U.S. at the time of the attacks.

I argued that the FBI has infinitely more evidence that Bruce Ivins was the anthrax mailer than DXer has against the person he believes sent the anthrax letters.

DXer responded HERE with this attack on the FBI:

But it’s not like the FBI Agents spend all their time rummaging around for a man’s semen-stained panties so that the prosecutor then can threaten to call his family in front of a grand jury to ask about problems at home.– and then close the case and declare victory upon his suicide.

That's pretty much how our arguments have gone for the past 12 years.  Only his attacks are usually upon me.

These same basic arguments are used by all Anthrax Truthers.   The only difference with DXer is that he buries his arguments inside an endless stream of meaningless blather.

Ed

Subject: Putting 2 and 2 together

Conspiracy theorists and True Believers have once again demonstrated how they think.  Just look at their theories about the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.  Each theorist has a different theory.

But, most of all, they show how they start with a theory and then find things to support that theory, ignoring any fact or evidence that contradicts their theory.  How else could someone connect a Muslim terrorist attack in Pakistan that involved a peddler's fruit cart to the fact that there was a cargo of fruit aboard Flight MH370, and conclude that the two events are evidence that Muslim terrorists hijacked MH370?

Here are some examples of Anthrax Truthers putting 2 and 2 together to get 739 or 395 or 55 or 38 or 1,233,754: 

1.  Ivins couldn't have made the spores at USAMRIID using standard procedures.  Everyone is required to follow procedures at USAMRIID.  Conclusion: Ivins must have been innocent.

Counter argument: Ivins didn't follow standard procedures.

2. Ivins didn't have time to make the spores.  It takes months to make that many spores.  Conclusion: Ivins must have been innocent.  

Counter argument: Ivins used spores from his lab trash that were already made. 

3.  I believe the spores were weaponized with silica.  I believe Ivins didn't know how to weaponize spores with silica.  Conclusion:  Ivins must have been innocent.

Counter argument:  The spores were NOT weaponized with silica.  They contained natural silicon.  

4.  Ivins could not have used the lyophilizer to dry the spores without contaminating the entire area. The lyophilizer was too big to move into a BSL-3 suite.  Conclusion: Ivins must have been innocent.

Counter argument: The spores were air dried.  The lyophilizer was not needed.

5.  Ivins seemed like a nice guy who couldn't hurt a fly.  Ivins was a blabbermouth, so he couldn't have sent the anthrax letters without telling other people about it.  Conclusion: Ivins must have been innocent.

Counter argument:  Ivins routinely did things and even committed crimes he didn't tell others about.  

Ed